Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probably COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical accounts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 17,114
2 New Jersey 15,045
3 Massachusetts 10,695
4 Rhode Island 9,939
5 Connecticut 8,914
6 District of Columbia 8,011
7 Louisiana 6,593
8 Delaware 6,099
9 Illinois 5,587
10 Maryland 4,875
11 Michigan 4,570
12 Pennsylvania 4,385
13 Nebraska 3,716
14 Iowa 3,505
15 Indiana 3,407
16 South Dakota 3,283
17 Colorado 3,171
18 Mississippi 2,918
19 Georgia 2,874
20 Virginia 2,527
21 Washington 2,276
22 Kansas 2,142
23 New Mexico 2,142
24 New Hampshire 2,090
25 Tennessee 2,074
26 Nevada 1,911
27 Ohio 1,893
28 Alabama 1,844
29 Florida 1,807
30 North Dakota 1,799
31 Utah 1,785
32 Minnesota 1,660
33 Wisconsin 1,582
34 California 1,581
35 Missouri 1,533
36 Vermont 1,467
37 South Carolina 1,387
38 Kentucky 1,381
39 Arizona 1,366
40 North Carolina 1,280
41 Texas 1,265
42 Arkansas 1,224
43 Idaho 1,218
44 Wyoming 1,097
45 Oklahoma 1,094
46 Maine 989
47 West Virginia 723
48 Oregon 708
49 Puerto Rico 635
50 Alaska 509
51 Hawaii 437
52 Montana 426

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 276
2 District of Columbia 228
3 Massachusetts 224
4 Delaware 222
5 New Jersey 201
6 Illinois 183
7 Nebraska 183
8 Connecticut 169
9 Maryland 163
10 New York 146
11 Iowa 143
12 Minnesota 125
13 Indiana 103
14 Kansas 97
15 Mississippi 90
16 South Dakota 89
17 Colorado 84
18 Pennsylvania 82
19 Virginia 81
20 New Mexico 73
21 Louisiana 70
22 Georgia 68
23 Alabama 63
24 North Dakota 63
25 New Hampshire 62
26 Washington 62
27 Kentucky 59
28 Michigan 57
29 Wisconsin 56
30 California 51
31 North Carolina 49
32 Ohio 47
33 Arizona 46
34 Utah 41
35 Tennessee 40
36 Texas 40
37 Missouri 34
38 Maine 30
39 Florida 29
40 Nevada 25
41 Arkansas 24
42 Oklahoma 24
43 South Carolina 24
44 Wyoming 22
45 Oregon 18
46 Puerto Rico 16
47 Idaho 13
48 West Virginia 13
49 Vermont 7
50 Alaska 2
51 Hawaii 1
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,347
2 New Jersey 990
3 Connecticut 784
4 Massachusetts 660
5 Louisiana 459
6 Michigan 434
7 District of Columbia 403
8 Rhode Island 366
9 Pennsylvania 281
10 Maryland 248
11 Illinois 247
12 Indiana 210
13 Delaware 207
14 Colorado 163
15 Mississippi 133
16 Georgia 125
17 Washington 118
18 Ohio 108
19 Nevada 95
20 Minnesota 90
21 Virginia 90
22 Vermont 86
23 New Hampshire 83
24 New Mexico 82
25 Alabama 75
26 Florida 74
27 Iowa 73
28 Missouri 73
29 Kentucky 67
30 Oklahoma 65
31 California 64
32 Wisconsin 64
33 Arizona 61
34 South Carolina 61
35 Kansas 56
36 North Carolina 49
37 Nebraska 47
38 Maine 46
39 North Dakota 40
40 Idaho 37
41 Tennessee 36
42 South Dakota 35
43 Texas 35
44 Puerto Rico 31
45 Arkansas 29
46 Oregon 28
47 West Virginia 28
48 Utah 19
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 33
2 New York 24
3 Connecticut 22
4 Massachusetts 22
5 Pennsylvania 18
6 Rhode Island 14
7 District of Columbia 12
8 Illinois 12
9 Louisiana 10
10 Maryland 10
11 Mississippi 9
12 Indiana 7
13 Delaware 6
14 Michigan 6
15 New Hampshire 6
16 Ohio 6
17 Colorado 5
18 Alabama 4
19 Arizona 4
20 Iowa 4
21 Minnesota 4
22 Florida 3
23 Georgia 3
24 Missouri 3
25 South Dakota 3
26 Virginia 3
27 California 2
28 Kentucky 2
29 Nebraska 2
30 Nevada 2
31 New Mexico 2
32 North Carolina 2
33 North Dakota 2
34 South Carolina 2
35 Washington 2
36 Kansas 1
37 Maine 1
38 Oklahoma 1
39 Tennessee 1
40 Texas 1
41 Utah 1
42 Wisconsin 1
43 Alaska 0
44 Arkansas 0
45 Hawaii 0
46 Idaho 0
47 Montana 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Puerto Rico 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 120,170 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 69,026 2 99
Nobles Minnesota 53,308 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 52,232 4 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,963 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 4,944 226 92
Richland South Carolina 2,509 546 82
Pierce Washington 1,802 751 76
Orange California 994 1224 61
York South Carolina 801 1443 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 2,951 1 99
Early Georgia 2,552 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,462 3 99
Essex New Jersey 1,728 4 99
Nassau New York 1,724 5 99
Richland South Carolina 125 466 85
Pierce Washington 63 774 75
Davidson Tennessee 50 886 71
Orange California 21 1279 59
York South Carolina 18 1324 57

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons